Data analysis predicts 2015 Wimbledon men’s champion

With the 2015 Wimbledon men’s championship rapidly reaching the pointy end of competition, only four players remain – Novak Djokovic [1], Andy Murray [3], Roger Federer [2] and Richard Gasquet [21]. But here’s the obvious question: Who’s going to be crowned the 2015 Wimbledon champion?

Using Business Intelligence software and data visualization to assess each player’s respective performances thus far, we think we might have found the answer.

Ready? Play.

Data source: Data supporting this analysis was collected from the official Wimbledon website and from stevegtennis.com

Total time spent on court at Wimbledon 2015


Insights

  • Federer has spent the least amount of time on court (471 minutes) on route to his Semi-Final match-up with hometown hope, Murray
  • Federer aside, Djokovic (643 minutes), Murray (662 minutes) and Gasquet (673 minutes) have spent relatively even amounts of time on court
    • Gasquet has spent the most time on court of the four semi-finalists, and encountered his toughest test of the tournament during his last match – a Semi-Final dog fight with Switzerland’s ‘other’ men’s single player, Stan Wawrinka

Federer’s fresh
The elder statesman of the group, Federer (33), has truly wound back the clock at Wimbledon 2015 – the tennis tournament he freely describes as his most loved. The Swiss master has spent just 471 minutes (7 hours and 51 minutes) on court in his five matches so far – 1:08 against Dzumhur of Bosnia and Herzegovina (round one), 1:26 beating Querrey of the USA (round two), 2:16 dispatching Groth of Australia (round three), 1:26 vanquishing Bautista Agut of Spain (round four), and 1:35 overcoming Simon of France (Quarter-Final). And, perhaps this is just as well, given that his Semi-Final opponent, Murray, is sure to receive parochial crowd support.

Federer aside, Djokovic (643 minutes), Murray (662 minutes) and Gasquet (673 minutes) have spent relatively even amounts of time on court. However, it’s clear that Gasquet comes into the final four at a disadvantage.

Aside from the obvious – he’s ranked well outside the top 10 and is the only player outside the ‘Fab Four’ (Djokovic, Murray, Federer and Nadal) to make the 2015 Wimbledon Semi-Finals, he’s also spent the most time on court.

While Gasquet has only played a collective 30 minutes more than Djokovic, and a mere 11 minutes more than Murray, the Frenchman faced his toughest match of the tournament to make the semis – a five set epic against the ‘other’ Swiss, Stan Wawrinka, which lasted 208 minute (3 hours and 28 minutes). Surely his legs are weary.

Number of sets and games dropped during Wimbledon 2015


Insights

  • Federer has conceded the fewest sets (1) and games (49)
  • Djokovic and Murray are almost inseparable, having both lost two sets and 66 and 65 games respectively
  • Gasquet has lost the most sets (3) and games (72)

Federer’s form is formidable
Thus far, Federer – debatably the most prolific player of the modern era – has breezed through the tournament, dropping just one set to Australia’s Sam Groth in the third round and losing a total of 49 games.

As has been the case in recent years generally, Djokovic and Murray are almost inseparable, having both lost two sets and 66 and 65 games respectively. However, one could potentially argue that Djokovic was lucky to even progress to finals stage of the championship, losing both his tournament sets in the same match – a mammoth fourth round five-setter against Anderson of South Africa.

The tournament’s 21st seed, Richard Gasquet, has lost the most sets (3) and games (72) of the remaining four combatants.

Total points won verse total points lost at Wimbledon 2015


Insights

  • Federer has won 58.8% of all points he’s played in the tournament – the best percentage of the four Semi-Final competitors
  • Djokovic (56.1%), Murray (55.3%) and Gasquet (55.2%) have almost won the same ratio of tournament points played – within one percentage point, in fact
  • Gasquet has won the lowest percentage of the total points he’s played (55.2%)

Federer makes a point
Seemingly hell-bent on creating history, and winning an unprecedented eighth Wimbledon crown, Federer has been on fire in 2015, winning 485 points – and conceding just 340 – to claim 58.8% of all points he’s played.

While Djokovic (56.1%), Murray (55.3%) and Gasquet (55.2%) have almost won the same ratio of tournament points played (within one percentage point), it’s worth noting that Gasquet finishes last for this statistic – again.

Percentage of points won on serve at Wimbledon 2015


Insights

  • Federer has won the highest percentage of points on serve: 310/380 (81.6%)
    • 1st serve points won: 211/248 (85.1%)
    • 2nd serve points won: 99/132 (75%)
  • Djokovic has won the second highest percentage of points on serve: 363/489 (74%)
    • 1st serve points won: 264/343 (77%)
    • 2nd serve points won: 99/146 (67.8%)
  • Gasquet has won the second lowest percentage of points on serve: 384/533 (72%)
    • 1st serve points won: 265/329 (80.5%)
    • 2nd serve points won: 119/204 (58.3%)
  • Murray has won the lowest percentage of points on serve: 342/483 (70.8%)
    • 1st serve points won: 250/319 (78.4%)
    • 2nd serve points won: 92/164 (56.1%)

Federer serving up a storm
Federer has won the highest percentage of points on serve (81.6%), claiming 310 of the 380 points played on his racquet. Djokovic is a distant second, winning 74% of points on serve for the tournament.

Looking a little deeper, Federer also has the best winning percentage on both first (85.1%) and second (75%) serves.

Interestingly, Murray’s infamously vulnerable second serve is brought out in the statics, with the hometown hope only winning 70.8% of point on his serve, and just 56.1% of points played on his second serve.

Total winners verse total unforced errors at Wimbledon 2015


Insights

  • Federer has hit the most winners (188)
  • Federer has made the fewest unforced errors (64)
  • Federer has the best winners to unforced error ratio (2.9)

Is the Fed Express charging towards the 2015 Wimbledon title?
Roger’s form seems formidable heading into the home straight at the All England Club in 2015, with the Swiss maestro hitting the most winners (188) and fewest unforced errors (64) of the four Semi-Finalists. This domination to date also gives him the best winners to unforced error ratio (2.9).

Djokovic, the number one seed, hold’s the second best ratio (2.4), having hit 182 winners and 77 unforced errors. Murray comes in a narrow third, scorching 172 winners and blundering 76 unforced errors, for a ratio of 2.3. Gasquet is again last, with a winners to unforced errors ratio of 2.2.

Receiving points won at Wimbledon 2015


Insights

  • Federer has won the highest percentage of points when receiving compared to the other three Semi-Finalists (41.6%)
  • Murray has won the second highest percentage of points when receiving (40.4%)
  • Djokovic has won the second lowest percentage of points when returning serve (39.2%)
  • Gasquet has had the least success returning serve, compared to the other Semi-Finalists, winning just 38.6% of points when receiving

Break point conversion rate at Wimbledon 2015


Insights

  • Gasquet has the best break point conversion rate of the remaining combatants (50%), securing 25 of 50 break point opportunities
  • Federer has the second best break point conversion rate (49%), winning 25 of 51 break points
  • Murray has been narrowly beaten into third place, claiming 23 of 47 break point opportunities, for a conversation rate of 48.9%
  • Djokovic has the worst break point conversation rate of the four Semi-Final competitors, winning 22 of 52 (42.3%)

Return games won at Wimbledon 2015


Insights

  • Federer and Gasquet have won the equal most return games at Wimbledon 2015 (25 apiece)
  • Murray has broken his opponents’ serve on 23 occasions
  • Djokovic has won the fewest return games (22)

Federer can hold, but Federer can break too
Federer hasn’t just been a big serving bully at Wimbledon 2015, with the Fed Express equaling Gasquet for the most number of return games won by the four Semi-Final rivals (25). Interestingly, the top seeded player, Djokovic, has broken his opponents’ serve the least number of times (22).

The Swiss’ returning prowess is also emphasized by the fact that he has also won the highest percentage of points when receiving at Wimbledon 2015 (compared to Djokovic, Murray and Gasquet), winning 185 of 445 points when returning serve (41.6%). Federer also has the second best break point conversion rate of the four remaining men (49%). Surprise packet, Gasquet, has converted 25 of 50 break points (50%) compared to Federer’s 25 from 51 attempts.

Head-to-head records (all-time)


Insights

  • Federer is the only Semi-Finalist to hold a superior winning record against all three remaining players
    • Federer winning record against other Semi-Finalists
      • Gasquet 14/2 (winning percentage of 87.5%)
      • Murray 12/11 (winning percentage of 52.2%)
      • Djokovic 20/19 (winning percentage of 51.3%)
    • Djokovic winning record against other Semi-Finalists
      • Gasquet 12/1 (winning percentage of 92.3%)
      • Murray 19/8 (winning percentage of 70.4%)
      • Federer 19/20 (winning percentage of 48.7%)
    • Murray winning record against other Semi-Finalists
      • Gasquet 5/3 (winning percentage of 62.5%)
      • Federer 11/12 (winning percentage of 47.8%)
      • Djokovic 8/19 (winning percentage of 30%)
    • Gasquet winning record against other Semi-Finalists
      • Djokovic 1/12 (winning percentage of 7.7%)
      • Murray 3/5 (winning percentage of 37.5%)
      • Federer 2/14 (winning percentage of 12.5%)

All-time winning record at Wimbledon (prior to 2015 tournament)


Insights

  • Federer has the best winning record at Wimbledon, triumphing in 74 of 83 matches played at the All England Club (winning percentage of 89.2%)
  • Djokovic has the second best winning record at Wimbledon, succeeding in 45 of 53 matches played (winning percentage of 84.9%)
  • Murray has the third best winning record at Wimbledon, prevailing in 41 of 49 matches played (winning percentage of 83.7%)
  • Gasquet has the worst winning record at Wimbledon, overcoming his opponent in just 20 of 29 matches played (winning percentage of 69%)

And history’s on Federer’s side too…
If Federer’s stellar tournament form wasn’t enough, he’s also the only Semi-Finalist to hold a superior winning record against all three remaining players. And, in addition, his grass court form and love of Wimbledon is evident in his peerless record at the All England club, with 74 victories and just nine losses (winning percentage of 89.2%).

So, are you backing the Fed Express to secure his eighth Wimbledon title? Let us know on Twitter @YellowfinBI

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